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Prediction for CME (2023-09-16T09:12:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-09-16T09:12Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/26949/-1
CME Note: Wide, complex, difficult to analyze CME with primary directionality (bulk) to the southwest in SOHO and STEREO A coronagraphs but containing features also seen to the west, south, and southeast along a discontinuous front. Associated with a large-scale filament eruption taking place on the Earth-facing disk from 2023-09-16T07:00Z to 09:00Z seen best in SDO/GOES 304; filament extends from N30W00 southwest through N10W30 with a minor, more narrow segment extending back east from N10W30 back towards S03W05. Arrival signature: Sudden sharp jump in solar wind parameters with B total reaching 21 nT and speed increasing above 550 km/s. May be indicative of additional coronal hole high speed stream influences (Tarik Salman, LASSOS team) from coronal hole at central meridian on 2023-09-15. Less likely but possible that this is a combined arrival of this CME and the 2023-09-14T23:12Z CME.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-09-18T12:58Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 7.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-09-19T12:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 90.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 7.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:

"SIDC URSIGRAM 30917
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 17 Sep 2023, 1303UT
SIDC FORECAST

...Coronal mass ejections: The halo coronal mass ejection (CME) related to the large filament eruption near the disc centre on Sept 16th, which was first observed by SOHO/LASCO-C2 at 09:12 UTC has now been analysed. While the bulk of the CME travels westward, a flank/glancing blow is expected to reach Earth on Sept 19th. No new Earth-directed CMEs have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery.


SIDC URSIGRAM 30918
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 18 Sep 2023, 1230UT
SIDC FORECAST

...Solar wind: The solar wind data at Earth shows the arrival of an ICME, corresponding to the CME on 14 September. The interplanetary magnetic field reached 11 nT with Bz down to -7 nT and solar wind speeds around 430 km/s.
Although the effects of this ICME are anticipated to diminish within the next 24 hours, another ICME event, corresponding to the CME from 16 September, is predicted to impact Earth on 19 September, potentially with greater intensity."

Lead Time: 2.50 hour(s)
Difference: -23.03 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Mattie Anastopulos (M2M Office) on 2023-09-18T10:28Z

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